UNDP's paper at National Assembly's Socio-Economic Forum 2021
Sep 27, 2021
Update on the latest developments of the world economy and impact on Viet Nam in 2022 and beyond.
The coronavirus pandemic is first and foremost a health crisis that has caused tremendous suffering and loss of life. It is also the most serious economic challenge in a generation, even greater in magnitude than the Global Financial Crisis of a decade ago. After a severe contraction of global output in 2020, world trade and output has recovered in the first nine months of this year. However, the crisis is still far from over, with more than 400,000 new cases reported every day, including more than fifty thousand in Southeast Asia. Our best hope remains the rapid and equitable deployment of coronavirus vaccines and coordinated multilateral action to sustain investment, trade and jobs as the infection is contained and progress is resumed toward achieving the SDGs in 2030.
In this short paper, UNDP Resident Representative a.i. Terence D. JonesI makes two main points. First, because of the recent wave of infections in Southeast Asia, the region is likely to experience a delayed recovery in 2021 and 2022. Growth with accelerate this year, but less than in other regions, gaining traction in 2022 as tourism, transport and other services come back on stream. Second, Viet Nam can support growth, employment and incomes with a larger cash assistance program for vulnerable households without fear of inflation or a negative impact on the balance of payments.